Libya, wounded lion: But is not 'the last word - by Claudio Moffa Where are the thousands of dead? As the media before and "create" reality to lack of time the following article was compiled in two stages: the first paragraph and the beginning of the second date - additions and updates separately - to Saturday and Sunday past. The rest I finished today. I leave unchanged the original text, because I believe that is in harmony with the appearance of the first photos and videos mentioned by me as non-existent: My thesis is that the emphasis has been invented and the media, for having produced the true facts in some television this morning. The match, however, seems still open: Gaddafi's speech on TV, which invites the people to crush the rebels is reversing the uncertainty of the early days, although the repression front is a sign of more weakness than strength Rais. Anything can still happen in Libya, whose crisis looks like I write in a sign of a different type than the Egyptian Event. A sort of companion piece to the ongoing response-derived pro-Palestinian (and not hostile to Iran: see the passage of ships through Suez Tehran) in Cairo.
1) Is there something in the back story of the Libyan events: the killing, aircraft, snipers, the mercenaries, the news that follow tell us that the crisis of the regime is as deep as it had never been in forty years in power of Gaddafi. But what is not clear what percentage of information "junkie" that aims to promote a successful solution of the crisis, according to the expectations of powerful rebels and their external supporters. In fact there is a considerable gap between the unit and video news on the one hand, and the figures shoot with headlines the press and television news across the world. All videos show usually no more than a few dozen people in the streets, because there is not a picture phone with at least twenty-thirty corpses on the ground, hundreds of killed by the regime? Witnesses, writes the BBC, q Qaddafi's planes or third parties who are fueling the civil war in the form of election protests in Iran two summers ago? Then again, some windows on fire, without which see the building as a whole do not know where and when they were filming. The movie with some horrible charred corpses is curious, again, a crowd of people and then the remains of the victims and displayed as transported tarpaulins on the military. On Al Jazeera, another post that looks like a movie, but it is actually a photo with the background in an unnamed Libyan Tripoli says that Gaddafi and his are "monsters." Still, photos of wounded to the hospital but do not know which hospital and when wounded. And video of mercenaries in Africa that do not say anything, maybe a few frames shot even on a plane.
then read the papers Titles bombardoni firing, the articles speak generally of "witnesses" (who) "report" and are adorned with flowers and may be conditional: see Qaddafi's flight to Venezuela. See the first two then four riders and defectors landed in Malta, which has no interviewed again, see the three ministers who would be discharged. The caution would seem, therefore, must, as indeed it can be deduced from the interview Libyan Ambassador to the UN in Geneva, which had left the Gaddafi regime, told Rai News yesterday morning that "the situation is extremely critical," which we are facing to the 'extreme crisis of the regime "that" Gaddafi has nothing in hand, but has not provided a single figure of the real or alleged victims. A "dirty" work to be given anonymity in network media, in television and in print, not to be performed by a senior diplomat with aspirations probabili a diventare ministro nell’era post-gheddafiana.
2) Si è di fronte dunque ad uno scarto notevole fra i dati di fatto certi e quella che potrebbe essere chiamata una sovraesposizione mediatica, onde per cui ponderare la profondità della crisi del regime libico è molto difficile. Attenzione però, è la stessa enfatizzazione mediatica a far crescere le difficoltà di Gheddafi: è un lavorio intelligente, che va a combinarsi con il pressing antiGheddafi dell’Europa e soprattutto – a fronte di un Obama silenzioso negli ultimi giorni - di Hillary Clinton, ministro degli esteri di quella stessa potenza che per iniziativa di Obama endorsed or contributed to the defenestration of the president-dictator of neighboring Egypt. Here are the concrete signs of collapse of the regime to its vertices, the three ministers and the diplomatic above and probably some officers and soldiers. The game is still open between the voices of desertion or mutiny spread to the West with no real factual evidence, and the possibility that all precipitate a coup or an assassination target. The unknown is not only the army, but the balance between different political-military, such as the Revolutionary Committees being built in the most radical revolution Gaddafi.
3) Un dato però sembra certo: nella crisi del regime hanno operato fino ad oggi più fattori esterni che interni, e all’interno meno le contraddizioni sociali (la Libia ha un reddito procapite alto) che quelle regionali, a cominciare dall’antica contrapposizione fra Cirenaica e Tripolitania, con Tripoli epicentro della parte più moderna, laica e “occidentalizzata” del paese e la Cirenaica tradizionalista e pervasa da tendenze islamiste. Una contrapposizione che può esser fatta risalire addirittura all’epoca precristiana, con l’ovest gravitante verso Cartagine e l’est colonizzato dai Greci collegato all’Egitto, e che ha attraversato nei secoli la storia Libyan. Benghazi has almost always been the stronghold of conservatism and reaction: even the hero of Libyan resistance Italian occupation, the lord of the desert and Senussi Omar al Mukhtar, had this to say in the process of 1931 that would have condemned all ' hanging: "I despise and hate the people of Benghazi, which in fact I despise and hate me." These days, the waving of the flag of King Idriss on a building in the capital Cyrenaic sign says a lot about the opposition in the east of the country the government of Tripoli and its radical, because the specter that is looming secession, a split of the country in two. Problem This current also dramatically after the disastrous secession of southern Sudan from Khartoum, but also for many years: already in the aftermath of World War II, the option unit began with the Italian conquest of 1911 and then with the expansion in 'uninhabited interior of the thirties, had been called into question: while Italy supported the status quo of the Boundary its former colony, France aspired to separation from the coast of Fezzan, recovered to the control of its colony Chad, England to the 'independence' of Cyrenaica, Egypt to join. He won the option supported by Rome, but the relationship between Tripoli e Bengasi sarebbero rimasti sempre problematici e negli ultimi due decenni resi più difficili dalla diffusione, come già detto, di un islamismo avversario della laicizzazione del paese promossa da Gheddafi fin dal colpo di stato antimonarchico del 1969.
4) Chi dentro e fuori la Libia sta cercando di rovesciare Gheddafi? Internamente oltre al fattore Cirenaica e ai nostalgici del vecchio regime monarchico, e oltre alle antiche contrapposizioni etniche e di clan, ci sono le nuove espressioni sociali e politiche della svolta di mercato avviata da Gheddafi stesso con la cosiddetta “primavera” the late eighties, a trend and a pattern which is known Chinese-type model: namely, the forces more or less "bourgeois" released to the market opening also require changes in the institutional, seeking to introduce Western-style models in the country.
Here is the heavy and decisive external factor, which is explicitly mentioned in his speech yesterday by Gaddafi's references to Afghanistan and Tien An Men: extremism is the West that wants to export the gun violence in all countries democracy is not welcome, as was unsuccessfully attempted in Iran and partly in Egypt, to be extremely active in the work to destabilize Libya's Gaddafi. In practice, and notwithstanding the alleged defense by rais Mubarak in Tripoli in the days of the revolt in Egypt, the Libyan events constitute a sort of pendant, to contrast with those of Cairo: you are not only the game is still on, but a leader has fallen markedly pro-Israel, from which comes the prospect of a potential "pro-Palestinian" in the course of events which pass by Suez of two Iranian naval ships, with the permission of Cairo, is a clear signal. ;
In Libya, Clinton is trying to restore balance in the opposite direction, giving a meal in Israel and Western all'oltranzismo their historical enemy, just the head of Gaddafi. A goal is not just because Libya plays an important role in at least three decisive board: in the Mediterranean with its filter function without rules of immigration in Italy and Europe, and buffer against what is called the risk "fundamentalist", a religious and social phenomenon that should be articulated and better understood but in Libya the outlines certain reactionary obscurantism. Then there is Africa, continent in which Gaddafi has pledged after the disappointment suffered in the Arab world where Libya, co-founder of the African Union with South Africa, has a powerful voice in the matter, to strongly denounce - a couple of years ago - the role of Israel in the many wars in the continent (see
http://www.claudiomoffa.it/pdf/2009/Gheddafiharagione.pdf )
Finally, the Middle East: the fierce campaign of a party against the Arab press Tripoli in recent days indicates that Gaddafi - a born leader, following Nasser's pan-Arabist convinced - has many enemies in its natural region of belonging. But Libya was also among the countries that participated in the side of the representative of Hamas, the pan-Arab summit in Gaza following the war of 2008-2009. So despite his "moderation" Gaddafi has shown signs of renewed sensitivity towards the Palestinian cause. How then reconcile this complex of iron with the alliance with Berlusconi's government is apparently difficult to understand, but the ways of official policy and "visible" are not always those of the strategic factors more or less "hidden": there are huge economic interests at stake - Libya, marginal oil supplies to Italy at the time of Mattei is now the first supplier ENI oil, not including gas and other strategic goods - there is the crux of immigration, there are direct holdings of Tripoli in key sectors of the Italian economy (eg UniCredit.) and there is also likely to remember a few Italian anecdote: as a snub of Gaddafi Fini waiting for him on Capitol Hill during his state visit in 2009, anticipating a kind of "parallel" of the future clash between the President of the Senate and the President of the Council. Read carefully, too, beyond the disputes motivated personalistic.
Claudio Moffa